After a chaotic 2024 for construction, the start of 2025 has not yet managed to mark a true turning point. Amid bursts of activity and structural weaknesses, the indicators point to an uncertain recovery. Here’s where the industry really stands as spring approaches.
📊 Key Construction Figures for Spring 2025
- -20,9 % housing units started over the past year
- -22 % new orders in civil engineering
- -1,8 % salaried jobs in the construction industry
- +25,2 % business failures over the past year
- +0,7 % in the maintenance and renovation sector
A Mixed Start to the Year for Residential and Commercial Properties
The Housing Sector remains a sensitive indicator of the building sector’s health, and the figures from early 2025 are far from reassuring. On the one hand, building permits are picking up slightly (+6.8 % over the three-month period ending in February).
On the other hand, the number of new housing starts is falling sharply: -20,9 % compared to the previous year. This imbalance reflects a persistent reluctance on the part of stakeholders, who are hesitant to turn approved projects into actual construction sites.
The New-Construction Housing Market also confirms that the market is slowing down. Listings are dwindling (-10.7 % year-over-year), and reservations are following the same downward trend, including bulk sales to institutional landlords. Weak demand, exacerbated by persistently high interest rates and limited access to financing, is weighing on overall momentum.
As for the nonresidential premises, the picture is slightly less bleak. While the permitted floor area is decreasing (-7,5 %), a positive trend is emerging: the amount of floor space actually under construction rose by 12.4% year-over-year in the third quarter.
This uptick reflects a degree of vitality in certain segments (logistics, industrial buildings), but remains fragile. Overall, both the housing and commercial real estate markets are off to a mixed start this year, with optimism still hinging on future economic momentum.
Public Works: A Sector That Remains Resilient Despite Declining Order Books
In the world of Public Works, the first few months of 2025 present a mixed picture. On the ground, companies continue to keep construction sites running: the number of hours worked is rising slightly (+0,4 %). A commendable performance given the tight budget constraints.
But the bigger concern lies in the bigger picture. Order books are shrinking before our very eyes: -22 % over a three-month period. This sharp decline, driven by a shortage of public tenders, raises concerns about a potential slowdown ahead. Local governments, constrained by rising costs and tight budgets, are scaling back their investment projects.
This imbalance is all the more concerning given that public works—which have historically served as a lifeline for the construction industry during difficult times—may no longer be able to act as a buffer by 2025.
While business appears to be holding up for now thanks to ongoing projects, the downward trend could intensify by summer if there is no rapid recovery in government orders.
Employment and Businesses: Growing Vulnerabilities
Employment in the Construction Industry is not immune to the turmoil. By the end of 2024, the number of employees in the sector had fallen by 1.8 % year-over-year, or nearly 30,000 jobs lost. This figure is highly significant for an industry that has historically been a major source of jobs that cannot be outsourced. The decline is all the more striking given that hiring pressures remained high as recently as a year ago.
The use of temporary workers, often employed as an adjustment variable, follows the same trend: -1.5 % year-over-year for temporary workers in the construction industry. Even more telling is the average number of’full-time equivalents (FTE) The number of temporary workers is 9,000 lower than the average for the previous 12 months. These figures reflect widespread caution among employers and a lack of visibility regarding their order books over the medium term.
In terms of new business start-ups, the momentum is slowing significantly. Start-ups, excluding micro-enterprises, are declining by -9,4 % over three months, and -3,9 % over the past year. Micro-entrepreneurs, in particular, are treading water (-12.1 % year-over-year). At the same time, business failures are skyrocketing: +15,7 % over three months, +25,2 % over the course of a full year.
This rise in defaults is a strong signal : More and more businesses, particularly small ones, are struggling to cope with the combined effects of the economic slowdown and rising operating costs.
These indicators reveal the vulnerabilities of the construction industry as a whole, with clear risks of a more severe downturn if economic conditions do not improve quickly.
Maintenance and Renovation: A Segment That's Holding Its Own
In this tense environment, maintenance and renovation is considered a safe haven. Admittedly, business activity declined slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024 (-0,2 %), but it showed an increase for the year as a whole (+0.7 1Q3Q in volume). This is a notable result, given that nearly all other segments are showing a decline.
This relative stability can be attributed to several factors: the continued implementation of public policies supporting energy-efficient renovations, the growing popularity of programs such as MaPrimeRénov’, and the age of France's housing stock, which requires constant maintenance.
At the same time, the order backlog for maintenance and renovation remains generally stable, providing opportunities for skilled tradespeople and specialized small and medium-sized businesses a more reassuring outlook than that of the new construction market. While the overall volume of business is not sufficient to offset losses in structural work, this segment nonetheless serves as a real safety net for many players.
Find out more here Highlights of the Economic Outlook Report – April 2025 from the GIE Réseau des CERC